Real-time Multivariate Madden-Julian Oscillation (RMM) Phase Space Diagrams
Climate Prediction Center
Model Comparison RMM
Paul Roundy's RMM
Carl Schreck's RMM Page
Wheeler and Hendon's RMM
Kyle MacRitchie's CFS v2 RMM
FOR Atlantic with CCKWs
(Left) MJO filtered VP200 anomalies for the current state, for the week 1 forecast, and for the week 2 forecast.
Cold colors are representative of a more favorable state over the Atlantic for tropical cyclogenesis (typically after the passage),
and warm colors represent a less favorable state for tropical cyclogenesis.
(Right) Same as Left but with Kelvin filtered VP200 anomalies in contours;
Cold (Warm) colors represent convectively active (suppressed) phase of CCKW; CINT = 0.5 STD
Additional information:
This product is built using GFS 1.0 near-real time analyses back to 260 days with the current most 7-day GFS 1.0 operational forecast.
Current Day = MJO filtered VP200 anomalies (shaded) are averaged using the preivous 3 days; CCKW filtered VP200 anomalies (contours) are plotted at the current time.
Week 1 = MJO filtered VP200 anomalies are averaged using forecast days +1 thorugh +7. CCKW filtered VP200 anomalies (contours) are plot for forecast day +4 only.
Week 2 is built using a simple extrapolation of the filtered fields in time using a zero-padding technique following the last day of GFS operational forecast data.
Therefore, Week 2 will always have weaker anomalies expressed when compared to Week 1 everytime.
Week 2 = MJO filtered VP200 anomalies is an average of forecast days +8 thorugh +14. CCKW filtered VP200 anomalies (contours) are plot for forecast day +11.
(Left) MJO filtered VP200 anomalies for the current state, for the week 1 forecast, and for the week 2 forecast.
Cold colors are representative of a more favorable state over the Atlantic for tropical cyclogenesis (typically after the passage),
and warm colors represent a less favorable state for tropical cyclogenesis.
(Right) Same as Left but with Kelvin filtered VP200 anomalies in contours;
Cold (Warm) colors represent convectively active (suppressed) phase of CCKW; CINT = 0.5 STD
Additional information:
This product is built using GFS 1.0 near-real time analyses back to 260 days with the current most 7-day GFS 1.0 operational forecast.
Current Day = MJO filtered VP200 anomalies (shaded) are averaged using the preivous 3 days; CCKW filtered VP200 anomalies (contours) are plotted at the current time.
Week 1 = MJO filtered VP200 anomalies are averaged using forecast days +1 thorugh +7. CCKW filtered VP200 anomalies (contours) are plot for forecast day +4 only.
Week 2 is built using a simple extrapolation of the filtered fields in time using a zero-padding technique following the last day of GFS operational forecast data.
Therefore, Week 2 will always have weaker anomalies expressed when compared to Week 1 everytime.
Week 2 = MJO filtered VP200 anomalies is an average of forecast days +8 thorugh +14. CCKW filtered VP200 anomalies (contours) are plot for forecast day +11.
The VPM Indices
(manuscript in press at Monthly Weather Review)
GFS variables used are VP200, U200, U850
The fractional contribution of each component on the full PC is shown in top left.
To see the variance of EOFs 1 and 2 , click here.
For the VPM index with Interannual variability retained
1989-2012 VPM Climatology (Without ENSO)
1989-2009 Partial Fraction Contribution Climatology (Without ENSO)
The fractional contribution of each component on the full PC is shown in top left.
To see the variance of EOFs 1 and 2 , click here.
For the VPM index with Interannual variability retained
1989-2012 VPM Climatology (Without ENSO)
1989-2009 Partial Fraction Contribution Climatology (Without ENSO)
VPM Partial Fraction Phase-Space Diagrams
Space-Time MJO Filtered Velocity Potential Phase Space Diagrams
(Left) MJO filtered VP850 only. (Right) MJO Filtered VP200 only. To see the variance of EOFs 1 and 2 , click here.
For phase space diagram of last 8 months: VP850 VP200
For phase space diagram of last 8 months: VP850 VP200
*NEW* 6-Variable Combined MJO Index
GFS variables used are VP200, VP850, U200, U850, MSLP, H200 averaged over 15S-15N. The fractional contribution of each component on the full PC is shown in top left. To see the variance of EOFs 1 and 2, click here.
1989-2009 6-Var Climatology (Without ENSO)
1989-2009 Partial Fraction Contribution Climatology (Without ENSO)
1989-2009 6-Var Climatology (Without ENSO)
1989-2009 Partial Fraction Contribution Climatology (Without ENSO)
Unfiltered 850VP and 200VP MJO Index
Global Composites
o 200 hPa velocity potential anomalies (shaded) and 200 hPa wind anomalies (vectors) averaged over each phase of the RMM PCs:
Kelvin Index: July-September
VPM without ENSO: June-September
Archive of VPM with ENSO included RMM PCs:
1989: JFM AMJ JAS OND 2001: JFM AMJ JAS OND
1990: JFM AMJ JAS OND 2002: JFM AMJ JAS OND
1991: JFM AMJ JAS OND 2003: JFM AMJ JAS OND
1992: JFM AMJ JAS OND 2004: JFM AMJ JAS OND
1993: JFM AMJ JAS OND 2005: JFM AMJ JAS OND
1994: JFM AMJ JAS OND 2006: JFM AMJ JAS OND
1995: JFM AMJ JAS OND 2007: JFM AMJ JAS OND
1996: JFM AMJ JAS OND 2008: JFM AMJ JAS OND
1997: JFM AMJ JAS OND 2009: JFM AMJ JAS OND
1998: JFM AMJ JAS OND 2010: JFM AMJ JAS OND
1999: JFM AMJ JAS OND 2011: JFM AMJ JAS OND
2000: JFM AMJ JAS OND 2012: JFM AMJ JAS OND
Kelvin Index: July-September
VPM without ENSO: June-September
Archive of VPM with ENSO included RMM PCs:
1989: JFM AMJ JAS OND 2001: JFM AMJ JAS OND
1990: JFM AMJ JAS OND 2002: JFM AMJ JAS OND
1991: JFM AMJ JAS OND 2003: JFM AMJ JAS OND
1992: JFM AMJ JAS OND 2004: JFM AMJ JAS OND
1993: JFM AMJ JAS OND 2005: JFM AMJ JAS OND
1994: JFM AMJ JAS OND 2006: JFM AMJ JAS OND
1995: JFM AMJ JAS OND 2007: JFM AMJ JAS OND
1996: JFM AMJ JAS OND 2008: JFM AMJ JAS OND
1997: JFM AMJ JAS OND 2009: JFM AMJ JAS OND
1998: JFM AMJ JAS OND 2010: JFM AMJ JAS OND
1999: JFM AMJ JAS OND 2011: JFM AMJ JAS OND
2000: JFM AMJ JAS OND 2012: JFM AMJ JAS OND
