![](http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/twc_globe_mjo_vp200.png)
FOR Atlantic with CCKWs
MJO filtered VP200 anomalies for the current state, for the week 1 forecast, and for the week 2 forecast.
Cold colors are representative of a more favorable state over the Atlantic for tropical cyclogenesis (typically after the passage),
and warm colors represent a less favorable state for tropical cyclogenesis.
Additional information:
This product is built using GFS 1.0 near-real time analyses back to 260 days with the current most 7-day GFS 1.0 operational forecast.
Current Day = MJO filtered VP200 anomalies (shaded) are averaged using the previous 3 days; Week 1 = MJO filtered VP200 anomalies are averaged using forecast days +1 through +7.
Week 2 is built using a simple extrapolation of the filtered fields in time using a zero-padding technique following the last day of GFS operational forecast data.
Therefore, Week 2 will always have weaker anomalies expressed when compared to Week 1 every time. Week 2 = MJO filtered VP200 anomalies is an average of forecast days +8 through +14.
MJO filtered VP200 anomalies for the current state, for the week 1 forecast, and for the week 2 forecast.
Cold colors are representative of a more favorable state over the Atlantic for tropical cyclogenesis (typically after the passage),
and warm colors represent a less favorable state for tropical cyclogenesis.
Additional information:
This product is built using GFS 1.0 near-real time analyses back to 260 days with the current most 7-day GFS 1.0 operational forecast.
Current Day = MJO filtered VP200 anomalies (shaded) are averaged using the previous 3 days; Week 1 = MJO filtered VP200 anomalies are averaged using forecast days +1 through +7.
Week 2 is built using a simple extrapolation of the filtered fields in time using a zero-padding technique following the last day of GFS operational forecast data.
Therefore, Week 2 will always have weaker anomalies expressed when compared to Week 1 every time. Week 2 = MJO filtered VP200 anomalies is an average of forecast days +8 through +14.
The VPM Indices
![](http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/last.90d.RMMPhase.png)
GFS variables used are VP200, U200, U850
The fractional contribution of each component on the full PC is shown in top left.
To see the variance of EOFs 1 and 2 , click here.
For the VPM index without Interannual variability retained
1989-2012 VPM Climatology (Without ENSO)
1989-2009 Partial Fraction Contribution Climatology (Without ENSO)
The fractional contribution of each component on the full PC is shown in top left.
To see the variance of EOFs 1 and 2 , click here.
For the VPM index without Interannual variability retained
1989-2012 VPM Climatology (Without ENSO)
1989-2009 Partial Fraction Contribution Climatology (Without ENSO)
VPM Partial Fraction Phase-Space Diagrams
![](http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/last.90d.RMMPhase_VP200.png)
![](http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/last.90d.RMMPhase_U200.png)
![](http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/last.90d.RMMPhase_U850.png)
Space-Time MJO Filtered Velocity Potential Phase Space Diagrams
![](http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/filterMJO_vp_Phase.png)
MJO Filtered VP200 anomalies. To see the variance of EOFs 1 and 2 , click here.
*NEW* 6-Variable Combined MJO Index
![](http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/newMJOindx.90d.noENSO.RMMPhase.png)
GFS variables used are VP200, VP850, U200, U850, MSLP, H200 averaged over 15S-15N. The fractional contribution of each component on the full PC is shown in top left. To see the variance of EOFs 1 and 2, click here.
1989-2009 6-Var Climatology (Without ENSO)
1989-2009 Partial Fraction Contribution Climatology (Without ENSO)
1989-2009 6-Var Climatology (Without ENSO)
1989-2009 Partial Fraction Contribution Climatology (Without ENSO)
Unfiltered 850VP and 200VP MJO Index
![](http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/vp850_200Phase.png)
Global Composites
o 200 hPa velocity potential anomalies (shaded) and 200 hPa wind anomalies (vectors) averaged over each phase of the RMM PCs:
Kelvin Index: July-September
VPM without ENSO: June-September
Archive of VPM with ENSO included RMM PCs:
1989: JFM AMJ JAS OND 2001: JFM AMJ JAS OND
1990: JFM AMJ JAS OND 2002: JFM AMJ JAS OND
1991: JFM AMJ JAS OND 2003: JFM AMJ JAS OND
1992: JFM AMJ JAS OND 2004: JFM AMJ JAS OND
1993: JFM AMJ JAS OND 2005: JFM AMJ JAS OND
1994: JFM AMJ JAS OND 2006: JFM AMJ JAS OND
1995: JFM AMJ JAS OND 2007: JFM AMJ JAS OND
1996: JFM AMJ JAS OND 2008: JFM AMJ JAS OND
1997: JFM AMJ JAS OND 2009: JFM AMJ JAS OND
1998: JFM AMJ JAS OND 2010: JFM AMJ JAS OND
1999: JFM AMJ JAS OND 2011: JFM AMJ JAS OND
2000: JFM AMJ JAS OND 2012: JFM AMJ JAS OND
Kelvin Index: July-September
VPM without ENSO: June-September
Archive of VPM with ENSO included RMM PCs:
1989: JFM AMJ JAS OND 2001: JFM AMJ JAS OND
1990: JFM AMJ JAS OND 2002: JFM AMJ JAS OND
1991: JFM AMJ JAS OND 2003: JFM AMJ JAS OND
1992: JFM AMJ JAS OND 2004: JFM AMJ JAS OND
1993: JFM AMJ JAS OND 2005: JFM AMJ JAS OND
1994: JFM AMJ JAS OND 2006: JFM AMJ JAS OND
1995: JFM AMJ JAS OND 2007: JFM AMJ JAS OND
1996: JFM AMJ JAS OND 2008: JFM AMJ JAS OND
1997: JFM AMJ JAS OND 2009: JFM AMJ JAS OND
1998: JFM AMJ JAS OND 2010: JFM AMJ JAS OND
1999: JFM AMJ JAS OND 2011: JFM AMJ JAS OND
2000: JFM AMJ JAS OND 2012: JFM AMJ JAS OND